Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoyas @ Wildcats GTWN @ VILL

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

15-17  |  Road

78
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 9:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

24-7  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
HOYAS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
HOYAS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Villanova)
HoyasGTWN (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoyas Cover

13.6%

Wildcats Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VILL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

GTWN By 1-7 points

9.3%

GTWN By 8-14 points

2.7%

VILL By 1-7 points

21.6%

VILL By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
64
GEORGETOWN
75
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
62
GEORGETOWN
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 GTWN @ VILL 78 - 64
Feb 7, 2026 VILL @ GTWN 80 - 73
Jan 21, 2026 GTWN @ VILL 51 - 66
Mar 4, 2025 VILL @ GTWN 73 - 75
Jan 20, 2025 GTWN @ VILL 64 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.6% more
Villanova: 17.6 vs Georgetown: 15.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Villanova: 35.0% vs Georgetown: 28.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Villanova: 47.8% vs Georgetown: 45.0%
Blocks (L5) +36.2% more
Georgetown: 3.5 vs Villanova: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GTWN Score 64.0 78
VILL Score 75.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 28.1 24.0 / 40.0
Assists 17.6 / 15.7 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.5 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 45.0 38.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 80.0 79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 34.6 19.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.8 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.8 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GTWN
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
GTWN
VILL
GTWN
ML
44% 14-18
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
ATS
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
TTL
41% 13-19
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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