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UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

19-13  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 11:30 PM ET
Lee's Family Forum
View Odds Details →

CAL STATE FULLERTON

TITANSCSUF

17-15  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
AGGIES --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (UC Davis)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 TitansCSUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

84.1%

Titans Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCD -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)

UCD By 1-7 points

23.0%

UCD By 8-14 points

27.2%

CSUF By 1-7 points

10.7%

CSUF By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
85
UC DAVIS
75
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
65
UC DAVIS
75
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UCD @ CSUF 70 - 82
Feb 19, 2026 UCD @ CSUF 92 - 93
Jan 15, 2026 CSUF @ UCD 69 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 UCD @ CSUF 65 - 49
Jan 9, 2025 CSUF @ UCD 53 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
UC Davis: 11.6 vs Cal State Fullerton: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
UC Davis: 72.8% vs Cal State Fullerton: 67.9%
Assists (L5) +41.9% more
Cal State Fullerton: 19.4 vs UC Davis: 13.7
Blocks (L5) +17.3% more
Cal State Fullerton: 3.3 vs UC Davis: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 85.0 70
CSUF Score 75.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 30.8 22.0 / 24.0
Assists 19.4 / 13.7 6.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.8 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 43.2 36.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 72.8 84.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 32.4 52.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.3 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.6 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUF
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUF Advantage
19-11-2 (63.3%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
UCD
CSUF
UCD
ML
68% 23-11
58% 19-14
76% 26-8
64% 21-12
ATS
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
76% 26-8
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 20-14
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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