Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Owls @ Mean Green FAU @ UNT

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

OWLSFAU

18-14  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 9:30 PM ET
Legacy Arena at BJCC
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

18-13  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
100%
📊
MEAN GREEN
0%
OWLS --
MEAN GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Texas)
OwlsFAU (-3.5) 0 Mean GreenUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Owls Cover

46.0%

Mean Green Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

FAU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FAU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNT By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNT By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
76
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
67
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
75
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mean Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 FAU @ UNT 70 - 74
Feb 22, 2026 FAU @ UNT 72 - 73
Feb 27, 2025 UNT @ FAU 71 - 61
Jan 26, 2025 FAU @ UNT 64 - 77
Mar 15, 2024 UNT @ FAU 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.6% more
North Texas: 7.9 vs Florida Atlantic: 6.0
Turnovers (L5) +34.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 13.2 vs North Texas: 8.7
Blocks (L5) +20.3% more
Florida Atlantic: 4.0 vs North Texas: 3.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.9%
Florida Atlantic: 41.0% vs North Texas: 30.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 75.0 70
UNT Score 76.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 41.0 25.0 / 18.0
Assists 9.6 / 10.4 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.0 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 46.6 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 62.5 / 66.6 63.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 36.4 37.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.0 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 13.2 5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
UNT Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.2
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
FAU
UNT
FAU
ML
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
ATS
52% 17-16
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
TTL
67% 22-11
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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