FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
18-14 | Road
79
DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
29-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
BLUE DEVILS
0%
SEMINOLES
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Duke)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
FSU By 1-7 points
4.0%
FSU By 8-14 points
0.8%
DUKE By 1-7 points
13.7%
DUKE By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida State
67
FLORIDA STATE
Duke
83
DUKE
Simulated Score
Florida State
69
FLORIDA STATE
Duke
78
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
FSU @ DUKE
79 - 80
Jan 3, 2026
DUKE @ FSU
91 - 87
Mar 1, 2025
FSU @ DUKE
65 - 100
Feb 17, 2024
DUKE @ FSU
76 - 67
Dec 31, 2022
FSU @ DUKE
67 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+35.9% more
Duke: 41.6
vs
Florida State: 30.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Duke: 69.0%
vs
Florida State: 66.3%
Blocks (L5)
+14.5% more
Florida State: 3.7
vs
Duke: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+9.4% more
Florida State: 8.9
vs
Duke: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FSU Score
67.0
79
DUKE Score
83.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 41.3
29.0 / 39.0
Assists
17.5 / 16.5
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 51.3
44.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 66.3
61.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 30.6
46.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.7
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 8.9
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
DUKE
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
FSU
DUKE
FSU
ML
71%
27-11
64%
21-12
73%
24-9
59%
19-13
ATS
79%
30-8
55%
18-15
73%
24-9
59%
19-13
TTL
47%
18-20
48%
16-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…