UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
23-10 | Road
70
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
19-13 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
MATADORS
100%
TRITONS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCSD By 8-14 points
18.6%
CSUN By 1-7 points
23.0%
CSUN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
77
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Northridge
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
68
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Northridge
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UCSD @ CSUN
70 - 80
Jan 31, 2026
UCSD @ CSUN
64 - 81
Jan 15, 2026
CSUN @ UCSD
84 - 79
Feb 27, 2025
UCSD @ CSUN
77 - 71
Jan 25, 2025
CSUN @ UCSD
54 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.7% more
UC San Diego: 8.6
vs
Cal State Northridge: 6.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
UC San Diego: 46.3%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 42.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+41.4% more
Cal State Northridge: 15.7
vs
UC San Diego: 11.1
Blocks (L5)
+33.7% more
Cal State Northridge: 2.8
vs
UC San Diego: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
77.0
70
CSUN Score
75.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.1 / 26.1
29.0 / 27.0
Assists
15.2 / 15.4
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 46.3
49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
73.5 / 72.8
80.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 34.8
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.1 / 8.6
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 11.1
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUN
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
UCSD
CSUN
UCSD
ML
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
ATS
58%
19-14
50%
17-17
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
19-14
62%
21-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
