Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Aztecs CSU @ SDSU

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

21-11  |  Road

62
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

20-10  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
AZTECS
100%
RAMS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RamsCSU (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

46.0%

Aztecs Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

CSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

CSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

SDSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
COLORADO STATE
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
65
COLORADO STATE
68
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 CSU @ SDSU 62 - 71
Feb 21, 2026 SDSU @ CSU 74 - 83
Jan 28, 2026 CSU @ SDSU 50 - 73
Feb 8, 2025 SDSU @ CSU 63 - 68
Jan 14, 2025 CSU @ SDSU 60 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
Colorado State: 17.9 vs San Diego State: 14.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.6% more
Colorado State: 11.2 vs San Diego State: 10.0
Blocks (L5) +74.2% more
San Diego State: 4.2 vs Colorado State: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 73.0 62
SDSU Score 72.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 36.7 9.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.6 / 17.9 6.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.4 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 48.7 48.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 73.1 52.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 29.8 43.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.8 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.2 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
CSU
SDSU
CSU
ML
62% 20-12
56% 19-15
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
ATS
69% 22-10
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
TTL
75% 24-8
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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