NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
21-11 | Road
84
GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
20-11 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
LOPES
0%
WOLF PACK
--
LOPES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Grand Canyon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)
NEV By 1-7 points
1.7%
NEV By 8-14 points
0.3%
GCU By 1-7 points
8.0%
GCU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
63
NEVADA
Grand Canyon
83
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
Nevada
72
NEVADA
Grand Canyon
75
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lopes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lopes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lopes (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Lopes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
NEV @ GCU
84 - 80
Jan 27, 2026
GCU @ NEV
60 - 66
Nov 12, 2022
GCU @ NEV
46 - 59
Dec 11, 2020
NEV @ GCU
77 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.1% more
Grand Canyon: 16.8
vs
Nevada: 14.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Grand Canyon: 38.1%
vs
Nevada: 28.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.1%
Grand Canyon: 82.0%
vs
Nevada: 74.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Grand Canyon: 49.6%
vs
Nevada: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
63.0
84
GCU Score
83.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 28.8
44.0 / 40.0
Assists
16.8 / 14.6
10.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.4
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 45.5
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
82.0 / 74.9
66.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 39.0
27.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.0 / 7.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.3
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
GCU
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
GCU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
NEV
GCU
NEV
ML
66%
21-11
62%
23-14
68%
21-10
73%
27-10
ATS
72%
23-9
73%
27-10
68%
21-10
73%
27-10
TTL
44%
14-18
49%
18-19
100%
31-0
100%
37-0
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