Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Musketeers @ Huskies XAV @ CONN

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

15-17  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

UCONN

HUSKIESCONN

27-4  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
100%
📊
HUSKIES
0%
MUSKETEERS --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UConn)
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 HuskiesCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

8.1%

Huskies Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CONN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

XAV By 1-7 points

5.8%

XAV By 8-14 points

1.4%

CONN By 1-7 points

16.9%

CONN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
XAVIER
93
UCONN
Simulated Score
70
XAVIER
78
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Huskies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Huskies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Huskies (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Huskies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 XAV @ CONN 68 - 93
Feb 3, 2026 XAV @ CONN 60 - 92
Dec 31, 2025 CONN @ XAV 90 - 67
Jan 25, 2025 CONN @ XAV 72 - 76
Dec 18, 2024 XAV @ CONN 89 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
UConn: 12.5 vs Xavier: 9.5
Steals (L5) +16.4% more
UConn: 6.7 vs Xavier: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
UConn: 4.4 vs Xavier: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
UConn: 36.5 vs Xavier: 33.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 79.0 68
CONN Score 93.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 37.5 38.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.9 / 18.3 18.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.8 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 47.0 57.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 85.7 85.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 33.0 40.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.7 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 9.5 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
CONN Advantage
34-6-0 (85.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
CONN
18-22-0 (45.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
XAV
CONN
XAV
ML
76% 29-9
58% 19-14
66% 23-12
72% 23-9
ATS
74% 28-10
73% 24-9
66% 23-12
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 19-19
39% 13-20
100% 35-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 20 hours, 9 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day, 1 hour ago
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 7 hours ago
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 13 hours ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago