Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Boilermakers NU @ PUR

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

15-18  |  Road

68
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 6:30 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

23-8  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
100%
WILDCATS --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WildcatsNU (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

42.1%

Boilermakers Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

NU By 1-7 points

26.8%

NU By 8-14 points

18.6%

PUR By 1-7 points

23.0%

PUR By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
68
NORTHWESTERN
66
PURDUE
Simulated Score
65
NORTHWESTERN
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 NU @ PUR 68 - 81
Mar 4, 2026 PUR @ NU 70 - 66
Jan 5, 2025 NU @ PUR 61 - 79
Jan 31, 2024 NU @ PUR 96 - 105
Dec 1, 2023 PUR @ NU 88 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +36.7% more
Northwestern: 7.1 vs Purdue: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Northwestern: 77.8% vs Purdue: 74.6%
Blocks (L5) +28.1% more
Purdue: 2.6 vs Northwestern: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +17.9% more
Purdue: 31.5 vs Northwestern: 26.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 68.0 68
PUR Score 66.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.7 / 37.3 35.0 / 43.0
Assists 19.5 / 16.9 25.0 / 22.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 47.6 49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 77.8 76.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 26.7 35.0 / 23.0
Steals 4.5 / 7.1 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 7.7 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
NU
PUR
NU
ML
67% 26-13
47% 16-18
66% 25-13
68% 23-11
ATS
64% 25-14
50% 17-17
66% 25-13
68% 23-11
TTL
51% 20-19
53% 18-16
100% 38-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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