Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bulls @ Lakers CHI @ LAL

CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

27-38  |  Road

130
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

40-25  |  Home

142
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
BULLS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Chicago)
BullsCHI (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

94.5%

Lakers Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHI -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-7 points

13.7%

CHI By 8-14 points

24.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

4.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
125
CHICAGO
109
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
107
CHICAGO
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulls (-11) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.0 Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 CHI @ LAL 130 - 142
Jan 26, 2026 LAL @ CHI 129 - 118
Mar 27, 2025 LAL @ CHI 117 - 119
Mar 22, 2025 CHI @ LAL 146 - 115
Jan 25, 2024 CHI @ LAL 132 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.2% more
Chicago: 5.2 vs Los Angeles: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Chicago: 15.4 vs Los Angeles: 11.3
Rebounding (L5) +18.9% more
Chicago: 52.9 vs Los Angeles: 42.9
Steals (L5) +37.4% more
Los Angeles: 8.2 vs Chicago: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 125.0 130
LAL Score 109.0 142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 33.3 47.0 / 42.0
Assists 27.1 / 28.9 31.0 / 34.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.2 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 45.0 56.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 74.0 71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 52.9 41.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.0 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 15.4 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0 (37.8%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0 (47.6%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7% Total +/-: +0.5
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
CHI
LAL
CHI
ML
61% 68-43
56% 54-42
54% 49-42
57% 46-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
65% 62-33-1
54% 49-42
57% 46-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
58% 56-40
100% 91-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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