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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

43-22  |  Road

102
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

51-15  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
THUNDER
100%
CELTICS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

20.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
123
BOSTON
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
122
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+8) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o216.5 Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u216.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 OKC @ BOS 109 - 119
Mar 12, 2026 BOS @ OKC 102 - 104
Mar 12, 2025 OKC @ BOS 118 - 112
Jan 5, 2025 BOS @ OKC 92 - 105
Apr 3, 2024 OKC @ BOS 100 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Boston: 46.6 vs Oklahoma City: 41.6
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Boston: 10.9 vs Oklahoma City: 9.9
Steals (L5) +44.9% more
Oklahoma City: 6.7 vs Boston: 4.6
Blocks (L5) +9.8% more
Oklahoma City: 4.8 vs Boston: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 123.0 102
OKC Score 120.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 36.5 25.0 / 31.0
Assists 24.8 / 26.4 22.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 45.3 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 80.2 76.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 46.6 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.7 / 4.6 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.9 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
BOS
OKC
BOS
ML
70% 80-34
57% 61-46
48% 46-49
53% 47-41
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 61-43-3
48% 46-49
53% 47-41
TTL
67% 76-38
56% 60-47
100% 95-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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