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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

21-44  |  Road

120
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-41  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
MAVERICKS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

96.4%

Grizzlies Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

21.6%

MEM By 1-7 points

2.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DALLAS
107
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.0% more
Dallas: 44.5 vs Memphis: 38.8
Steals (L5) +57.1% more
Memphis: 8.2 vs Dallas: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +41.6% more
Memphis: 5.4 vs Dallas: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Memphis: 16.8 vs Dallas: 14.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 125.0 120
MEM Score 107.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 32.9 29.0 / 34.0
Assists 26.9 / 24.7 26.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.8 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 44.0 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 78.9 73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 44.5 38.0 / 60.0
Steals 8.2 / 5.2 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 16.8 / 14.9 10.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DAL
MEM
DAL
ML
57% 59-44
62% 63-39
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
ATS
63% 65-38
67% 68-34
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
TTL
70% 71-31-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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