PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
38-27 | Road
123
INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-50 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
PACERS
100%
SUNS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
PHX By 1-7 points
26.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
16.9%
IND By 1-7 points
24.3%
IND By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
117
PHOENIX
Indiana
116
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Indiana
120
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u223.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PHX @ IND
123 - 108
Nov 13, 2025
IND @ PHX
98 - 133
Jan 4, 2025
PHX @ IND
108 - 126
Dec 19, 2024
IND @ PHX
120 - 111
Jan 26, 2024
PHX @ IND
131 - 133
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Phoenix: 39.3%
vs
Indiana: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Phoenix: 47.0%
vs
Indiana: 43.8%
Blocks (L5)
+27.0% more
Indiana: 3.9
vs
Phoenix: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
117.0
123
IND Score
116.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 39.3
30.0 / 41.0
Assists
28.9 / 27.5
24.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.1
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 47.0
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 78.6
88.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 41.8
36.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.4 / 8.0
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 12.4
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
PHX
IND
PHX
ML
48%
47-50
57%
60-45
54%
45-38
51%
45-43
ATS
59%
57-40
58%
59-43-3
54%
45-38
51%
45-43
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
61-42-2
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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