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UNLV

REBELSUNLV

17-15  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 3:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

25-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
REBELS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah State)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

46.0%

Aggies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

UNLV By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNLV By 8-14 points

13.7%

USU By 1-7 points

26.2%

USU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
80
UNLV
81
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
73
UNLV
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UNLV @ USU 60 - 80
Mar 3, 2026 USU @ UNLV 65 - 92
Jan 20, 2026 UNLV @ USU 86 - 76
Mar 13, 2025 UNLV @ USU 58 - 70
Jan 29, 2025 UNLV @ USU 71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Utah State: 6.3 vs UNLV: 5.6
Assists (L5) +9.0% more
Utah State: 16.3 vs UNLV: 15.0
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Utah State: 72.0% vs UNLV: 68.6%
Blocks (L5) +74.6% more
UNLV: 7.2 vs Utah State: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 80.0 60
USU Score 81.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 40.6 40.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.3 / 15.0 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.8 / 7.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 48.4 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 68.6 64.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 29.8 / 33.8 33.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.6 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.6 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
UNLV
USU
UNLV
ML
49% 17-18
50% 17-17
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
ATS
74% 26-9
65% 22-12
67% 22-11
59% 20-14
TTL
51% 18-17
62% 21-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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