LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
23-9 | Road
73
MIAMI
HURRICANESMIA
24-7 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
HURRICANES
100%
CARDINALS
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Louisville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)
LOU By 1-7 points
25.3%
LOU By 8-14 points
26.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
13.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Louisville
83
LOUISVILLE
Miami
75
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Louisville
71
LOUISVILLE
Miami
76
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
LOU @ MIA
73 - 78
Mar 7, 2026
LOU @ MIA
92 - 89
Feb 8, 2025
MIA @ LOU
78 - 88
Jan 10, 2024
LOU @ MIA
80 - 71
Feb 11, 2023
LOU @ MIA
85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.1% more
Miami: 7.4
vs
Louisville: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+26.9% more
Miami: 17.9
vs
Louisville: 14.1
Blocks (L5)
+20.9% more
Miami: 2.8
vs
Louisville: 2.3
Turnovers (L5)
+15.7% more
Miami: 11.5
vs
Louisville: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LOU Score
83.0
73
MIA Score
75.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.7 / 35.4
38.0 / 25.0
Assists
17.9 / 14.1
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.3
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 46.7
47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 72.2
66.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 31.8
33.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.7
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.0
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
18-15-1
(54.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LOU
MIA
LOU
ML
63%
22-13
63%
22-13
64%
21-12
71%
24-10
ATS
63%
22-13
71%
25-10
64%
21-12
71%
24-10
TTL
63%
22-13
63%
22-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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