SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
BULLDOGSSCST
9-21 | Road
88
NORFOLK STATE
SPARTANSNORF
15-16 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Norfolk State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NORF -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)
SCST By 1-7 points
12.2%
SCST By 8-14 points
4.0%
NORF By 1-7 points
24.3%
NORF By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
South Carolina State
70
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Norfolk State
79
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
South Carolina State
66
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Norfolk State
75
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
SCST @ NORF
88 - 82
Feb 21, 2026
SCST @ NORF
71 - 90
Jan 17, 2026
NORF @ SCST
89 - 82
Mar 15, 2025
SCST @ NORF
65 - 66
Mar 1, 2025
NORF @ SCST
88 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.1% more
Norfolk State: 7.2
vs
South Carolina State: 6.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Norfolk State: 46.9%
vs
South Carolina State: 41.8%
Blocks (L5)
+41.7% more
South Carolina State: 5.0
vs
Norfolk State: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+29.9% more
South Carolina State: 13.5
vs
Norfolk State: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SCST Score
70.0
88
NORF Score
79.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 35.1
30.0 / 28.0
Assists
12.6 / 13.1
10.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.0
2.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 41.8
44.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 73.0
89.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 32.9
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.1
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 13.5
18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -11.7
ATS +/-: -0.9
NORF
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -11.7
ATS +/-: -0.9
NORF
Advantage
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.6
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1%
Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
SCST
NORF
SCST
ML
67%
20-10
61%
19-12
71%
20-8
74%
20-7
ATS
63%
19-11
68%
21-10
72%
21-8
74%
20-7
TTL
60%
18-12
52%
16-15
100%
29-0
100%
27-0
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