Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Jaguars UAPB @ SOU

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

13-18  |  Road

81
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 8:30 PM ET
Gateway Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

15-16  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
GOLDEN LIONS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Southern)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 JaguarsSOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

38.2%

Jaguars Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)

UAPB By 1-7 points

21.6%

UAPB By 8-14 points

10.7%

SOU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SOU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
71
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
74
SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
68
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
75
SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UAPB @ SOU 81 - 84
Jan 24, 2026 UAPB @ SOU 75 - 74
Jan 25, 2025 SOU @ UAPB 83 - 67
Jan 27, 2024 UAPB @ SOU 66 - 80
Jan 21, 2023 SOU @ UAPB 55 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.4% more
Southern: 3.0 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.8%
Southern: 45.4% vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 29.7%
Steals (L5) +12.2% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 8.4 vs Southern: 7.4
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 11.7 vs Southern: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 71.0 81
SOU Score 74.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.4 / 29.7 63.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.0 / 15.9 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 47.6 57.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 77.7 70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 34.0 29.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.4 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.7 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SOU
UAPB
SOU
UAPB
ML
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
70% 21-9
73% 19-7
ATS
64% 21-12
73% 22-8-1
70% 21-9
73% 19-7
TTL
42% 14-19
68% 21-10
100% 30-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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