Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Patriots SBU @ GMU

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

16-16  |  Road

63
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 2:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

23-8  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
BONNIES --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

46.0%

Patriots Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GMU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

SBU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SBU By 8-14 points

16.9%

GMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

GMU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
82
ST. BONAVENTURE
81
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bonnies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SBU @ GMU 63 - 57
Feb 28, 2026 SBU @ GMU 58 - 71
Jan 31, 2026 GMU @ SBU 77 - 73
Jan 21, 2025 GMU @ SBU 75 - 62
Jan 20, 2024 SBU @ GMU 60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 3.5 vs George Mason: 2.1
Steals (L5) +32.5% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.3 vs George Mason: 5.0
Assists (L5) +27.8% more
St. Bonaventure: 17.8 vs George Mason: 12.9
Turnovers (L5) +19.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 12.5 vs George Mason: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 82.0 63
GMU Score 81.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 40.6 25.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.9 / 17.8 6.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 47.4 42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 71.4 50.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 39.8 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.0 / 7.3 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 12.5 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
SBU
GMU
SBU
ML
55% 18-15
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
ATS
55% 18-15
50% 17-17
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
TTL
58% 19-14
38% 13-21
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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