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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

20-12  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

27-4  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
WOLFPACK --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

42.1%

Cavaliers Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

NCSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

NCSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

UVA By 1-7 points

23.0%

UVA By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NC STATE
74
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
65
NC STATE
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolfpack Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 NCSU @ UVA 74 - 81
Feb 24, 2026 NCSU @ UVA 61 - 90
Jan 3, 2026 UVA @ NCSU 76 - 61
Dec 31, 2024 NCSU @ UVA 67 - 70
Mar 15, 2024 NCSU @ UVA 73 - 65
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
NC State: 40.1% vs Virginia: 34.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
NC State: 48.9% vs Virginia: 43.6%
Blocks (L5) +155.4% more
Virginia: 7.2 vs NC State: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Virginia: 11.0 vs NC State: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 76.0 74
UVA Score 74.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 40.1 48.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.7 / 13.2 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 7.2 / 2.8 9.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 48.9 48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 77.9 79.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 29.3 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.7 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 7.8 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
UVA Advantage
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
NCSU
UVA
NCSU
ML
67% 24-12
59% 20-14
72% 26-10
55% 18-15
ATS
75% 27-9
71% 24-10
72% 26-10
55% 18-15
TTL
53% 19-17
71% 24-10
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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