Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Mavericks SUU @ UTA

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

10-21  |  Road

63
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

17-13  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UT Arlington)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

13.6%

Mavericks Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

SUU By 1-7 points

9.3%

SUU By 8-14 points

2.7%

UTA By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTA By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SOUTHERN UTAH
80
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
75
SOUTHERN UTAH
78
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SUU @ UTA 63 - 69
Feb 14, 2026 SUU @ UTA 78 - 73
Jan 29, 2026 SUU @ UTA 61 - 80
Jan 3, 2026 UTA @ SUU 86 - 77
Jan 30, 2025 SUU @ UTA 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.0% more
UT Arlington: 35.7 vs Southern Utah: 31.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.1% more
UT Arlington: 14.0 vs Southern Utah: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
UT Arlington: 75.7% vs Southern Utah: 72.2%
Assists (L5) +45.4% more
Southern Utah: 14.1 vs UT Arlington: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 69.0 63
UTA Score 80.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 36.8 18.0 / 19.0
Assists 7.7 / 14.1 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.2 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.5 / 50.7 34.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 72.2 78.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 31.6 50.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.2 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 12.7 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
SUU
UTA
SUU
ML
50% 16-16
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
ATS
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
TTL
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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