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IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

26-6  |  Road

75
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 12:30 PM ET
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TEXAS TECH

RED RAIDERSTTU

22-9  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
📊
RED RAIDERS
0%
CYCLONES --
RED RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas Tech)
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 Red RaidersTTU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

46.0%

Red Raiders Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TTU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

ISU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ISU By 8-14 points

13.7%

TTU By 1-7 points

26.2%

TTU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
IOWA STATE
70
TEXAS TECH
Simulated Score
69
IOWA STATE
75
TEXAS TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Raiders (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Red Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 ISU @ TTU 75 - 53
Feb 28, 2026 TTU @ ISU 82 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 ISU @ TTU 85 - 84
Feb 17, 2024 TTU @ ISU 74 - 82
Jan 30, 2023 ISU @ TTU 77 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +144.7% more
Texas Tech: 3.7 vs Iowa State: 1.5
Turnovers (L5) +34.6% more
Texas Tech: 11.8 vs Iowa State: 8.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Texas Tech: 42.2% vs Iowa State: 35.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Texas Tech: 48.8% vs Iowa State: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 69.0 75
TTU Score 70.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 35.1 31.0 / 39.0
Assists 15.0 / 15.9 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.7 / 1.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 44.1 34.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 70.1 60.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 33.8 29.0 / 39.0
Steals 3.4 / 10.5 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 8.8 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
TTU
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
TTU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
TTU
15-19-0
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
ISU
TTU
ISU
ML
62% 21-13
57% 21-16
71% 22-9
76% 26-8
ATS
65% 22-12
62% 23-14
71% 22-9
76% 26-8
TTL
59% 20-14
54% 20-17
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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