IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
21-11 | Road
69
OHIO STATE
BUCKEYESOSU
20-11 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
BUCKEYES
0%
HAWKEYES
--
BUCKEYES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Ohio State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)
IOWA By 1-7 points
6.8%
IOWA By 8-14 points
1.7%
OSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
OSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
57
IOWA
Ohio State
70
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
Iowa
74
IOWA
Ohio State
80
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buckeyes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buckeyes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buckeyes (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Buckeyes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
IOWA @ OSU
69 - 72
Feb 25, 2026
OSU @ IOWA
57 - 74
Mar 12, 2025
IOWA @ OSU
77 - 70
Jan 27, 2025
IOWA @ OSU
65 - 82
Mar 14, 2024
OSU @ IOWA
90 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+83.0% more
Ohio State: 1.8
vs
Iowa: 1.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.2%
Ohio State: 48.2%
vs
Iowa: 34.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Ohio State: 55.6%
vs
Iowa: 47.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Ohio State: 76.1%
vs
Iowa: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
57.0
69
OSU Score
70.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
48.2 / 34.0
30.0 / 48.0
Assists
13.4 / 16.5
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.8 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
55.6 / 47.4
55.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 73.3
74.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
29.0 / 27.4
21.0 / 24.0
Steals
4.8 / 7.8
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 11.0
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
OSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
OSU
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 6.7
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
IOWA
OSU
IOWA
ML
53%
18-16
59%
22-15
73%
24-9
78%
28-8
ATS
59%
20-14
76%
28-9
73%
24-9
78%
28-8
TTL
56%
19-15
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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