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DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

36-22-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

39-20-4  |  Home

4
Goaltending
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
John Gibson None-None 3.02 0.893 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.960 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.02 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.893 Save % Ldr 0.960
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
RED WINGS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

DET By 1 goal

12.1%

DET By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DETROIT
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
5
DETROIT
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wings Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Red Wings (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 13, 2026 DET @ TB 3 - 4
Mar 12, 2026 DET @ TB 1 - 4
Nov 28, 2025 TB @ DET 6 - 3
Oct 17, 2025 TB @ DET 1 - 2
Apr 11, 2025 DET @ TB 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +87.7% more
Tampa Bay: 29.3 vs Detroit: 15.6
Power Play % (L5) +20.5%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Detroit: 11.0%
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.6% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Detroit: 27.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +8.1% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9 vs Detroit: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.0 1
TB Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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