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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

32-25-8  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

40-14-10  |  Home

7
Goaltending
Tristan Jarry
GOALTENDER

Tristan Jarry

#35 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Tristan Jarry None-None 7.00 0.741 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 2.00 0.938 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
7.00 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.741 Save % Ldr 0.938
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
0%
📊
STARS
100%
OILERS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Edmonton)
OilersEDM (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

84.1%

Stars Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around EDM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

EDM By 1 goal

17.5%

EDM By 2-3 goals

37.2%

DAL By 1 goal

6.6%

DAL By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4
EDMONTON
2
DALLAS
Simulated Score
3
EDMONTON
5
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oilers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oilers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 EDM @ DAL 2 - 7
Nov 25, 2025 DAL @ EDM 8 - 3
Nov 4, 2025 EDM @ DAL 3 - 4
May 29, 2025 EDM @ DAL 6 - 3
May 27, 2025 DAL @ EDM 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.5% more
Edmonton: 36.9 vs Dallas: 27.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +57.8% more
Dallas: 17.4 vs Edmonton: 11.1
Power Play % (L5) +11.3%
Dallas: 32.0% vs Edmonton: 20.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 4.0 2
DAL Score 2.0 7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
77%MONEY23%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
EDM
DAL
EDM
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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