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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

32-17-15  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

29-22-14  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
@
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Arturs Silovs None-None 5.66 0.688 --
Adin Hill None-None 2.00 0.923 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.66 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.688 Save % Ldr 0.923
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
PENGUINS --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

97.7%

Golden Knights Cover

2.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

6.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

VGK By 1 goal

0.9%

VGK By 2-3 goals

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
1
VEGAS
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 PIT @ VGK 2 - 6
Mar 1, 2026 VGK @ PIT 0 - 5
Mar 11, 2025 VGK @ PIT 2 - 3
Mar 7, 2025 PIT @ VGK 0 - 4
Jan 20, 2024 PIT @ VGK 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +28.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Vegas: 3.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.7% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Vegas: 26.9
Blocked Shots (L5) +30.3% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Hits (L5) +23.4% more
Vegas: 23.8 vs Pittsburgh: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 2
VGK Score 1.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
42%MONEY58%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
PIT
VGK
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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