Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vandals @ Grizzlies IDHO @ MONT

IDAHO

VANDALSIDHO

20-14  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 11:30 PM ET
Idaho Central Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

18-15  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
VANDALS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Montana)
VandalsIDHO (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vandals Cover

15.9%

Grizzlies Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

IDHO By 1-7 points

10.7%

IDHO By 8-14 points

3.3%

MONT By 1-7 points

23.0%

MONT By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
IDAHO
81
MONTANA
Simulated Score
63
IDAHO
78
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 IDHO @ MONT 77 - 66
Feb 7, 2026 IDHO @ MONT 68 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 MONT @ IDHO 79 - 73
Mar 11, 2025 IDHO @ MONT 55 - 78
Jan 20, 2025 IDHO @ MONT 67 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.9% more
Montana: 13.8 vs Idaho: 8.7
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
Montana: 12.1 vs Idaho: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Montana: 37.9% vs Idaho: 31.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Montana: 73.4% vs Idaho: 68.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 71.0 77
MONT Score 81.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 31.7 24.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.1 / 10.2 7.0 / 6.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.9 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 47.8 41.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 68.8 76.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 37.8 28.0 / 42.0
Steals 3.9 / 4.7 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 8.7 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
IDHO
MONT
IDHO
ML
39% 13-20
56% 20-16
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
ATS
55% 18-15
58% 21-15
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13-1
69% 25-11
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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