NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
16-15 | Road
61
SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
21-10 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
BEARKATS
100%
AGGIES
--
BEARKATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)
NMSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NMSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
SHSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
SHSU By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Mexico State
77
NEW MEXICO STATE
Sam Houston
75
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
New Mexico State
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
Sam Houston
75
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearkats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearkats (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Bearkats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
NMSU @ SHSU
61 - 69
Dec 21, 2025
SHSU @ NMSU
78 - 87
Mar 8, 2025
NMSU @ SHSU
69 - 76
Jan 2, 2025
SHSU @ NMSU
71 - 75
Feb 22, 2024
SHSU @ NMSU
79 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.8% more
New Mexico State: 6.5
vs
Sam Houston: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.4%
New Mexico State: 76.7%
vs
Sam Houston: 68.3%
Assists (L5)
+36.2% more
Sam Houston: 14.4
vs
New Mexico State: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.9%
Sam Houston: 46.0%
vs
New Mexico State: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score
77.0
61
SHSU Score
75.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
46.0 / 32.1
23.0 / 16.0
Assists
14.4 / 10.6
10.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.0
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 40.2
33.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 76.7
61.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 38.8
50.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.5
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 9.6
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
NMSU
SHSU
NMSU
ML
55%
18-15
61%
19-12
74%
23-8
67%
20-10
ATS
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
74%
23-8
67%
20-10
TTL
48%
16-17
45%
14-17
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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