BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
18-13 | Road
76
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
17-14 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
FALCONS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Toledo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)
BGSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
BGSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
TOL By 1-7 points
26.8%
TOL By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
81
BOWLING GREEN
Toledo
87
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
71
BOWLING GREEN
Toledo
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
BGSU @ TOL
76 - 77
Feb 14, 2026
TOL @ BGSU
70 - 80
Jan 24, 2026
BGSU @ TOL
72 - 73
Feb 21, 2025
BGSU @ TOL
69 - 68
Jan 24, 2025
TOL @ BGSU
84 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+56.0% more
Toledo: 18.3
vs
Bowling Green: 11.7
Steals (L5)
+41.4% more
Toledo: 8.6
vs
Bowling Green: 6.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.9%
Toledo: 52.8%
vs
Bowling Green: 42.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.3%
Toledo: 79.7%
vs
Bowling Green: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
81.0
76
TOL Score
87.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 36.8
50.0 / 29.0
Assists
18.3 / 11.7
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.8 / 42.9
51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 73.3
54.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 37.2
34.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.1
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
7.5 / 9.3
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BGSU
TOL
BGSU
ML
48%
16-17
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
56%
18-14
ATS
48%
16-17
72%
23-9
61%
20-13
56%
18-14
TTL
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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