MISSOURI STATE
BEARSMOST
15-17 | Road
77
LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
25-6 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
FLAMES
100%
BEARS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Missouri State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MOST -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)
MOST By 1-7 points
26.8%
MOST By 8-14 points
24.3%
LIB By 1-7 points
16.9%
LIB By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Missouri State
76
MISSOURI STATE
Liberty
70
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
Missouri State
68
MISSOURI STATE
Liberty
75
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MOST @ LIB
77 - 69
Feb 7, 2026
MOST @ LIB
76 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.5% more
Missouri State: 6.5
vs
Liberty: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+14.8% more
Missouri State: 10.2
vs
Liberty: 8.7
Rebounding (L5)
+12.9% more
Missouri State: 30.6
vs
Liberty: 26.6
Blocks (L5)
+61.3% more
Liberty: 3.4
vs
Missouri State: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MOST Score
76.0
77
LIB Score
70.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.5 / 36.0
29.0 / 50.0
Assists
17.6 / 16.6
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 47.6
43.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 66.1
67.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
26.6 / 30.6
30.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.0 / 6.5
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 10.2
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +3.2
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
MOST
LIB
MOST
ML
50%
17-17
65%
22-12
53%
18-16
62%
21-13
ATS
62%
21-13
68%
23-11
53%
18-16
62%
21-13
TTL
41%
14-20
44%
15-19
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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