HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
40-24 | Road
93
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
39-26 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
15.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
25.3%
DEN By 1-7 points
4.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
124
HOUSTON
Denver
109
DENVER
Simulated Score
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o230.5
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
HOU @ DEN
93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ DEN
115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025
HOU @ DEN
125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025
DEN @ HOU
112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025
DEN @ HOU
126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.2% more
Houston: 5.1
vs
Denver: 2.4
Steals (L5)
+43.0% more
Houston: 7.8
vs
Denver: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+23.1% more
Houston: 17.0
vs
Denver: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Houston: 79.4%
vs
Denver: 76.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
124.0
93
DEN Score
109.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 35.3
53.0 / 12.0
Assists
28.0 / 23.4
36.0 / 25.0
Blocks
2.4 / 5.1
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 49.6
55.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 79.4
73.0 / 36.0
Rebounding
44.9 / 46.7
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
4.4 / 7.8
12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 17.0
10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
HOU
DEN
HOU
ML
54%
57-48
61%
69-44
55%
47-39
59%
51-35
ATS
63%
65-38-2
62%
70-43
55%
47-39
59%
51-35
TTL
54%
56-48-1
51%
58-55
100%
86-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…