DELAWARE STATE
HORNETSDSU
7-22 | Road
75
MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
14-15 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
BEARS
0%
HORNETS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Morgan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)
DSU By 1-7 points
4.8%
DSU By 8-14 points
1.1%
MORG By 1-7 points
15.3%
MORG By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Delaware State
69
DELAWARE STATE
Morgan State
84
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Delaware State
70
DELAWARE STATE
Morgan State
72
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
DSU @ MORG
75 - 70
Feb 21, 2026
DSU @ MORG
68 - 82
Jan 17, 2026
MORG @ DSU
80 - 79
Mar 3, 2025
DSU @ MORG
81 - 87
Feb 3, 2025
MORG @ DSU
82 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+205.6% more
Morgan State: 4.4
vs
Delaware State: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+43.7% more
Morgan State: 13.7
vs
Delaware State: 9.5
Rebounding (L5)
+19.8% more
Morgan State: 37.8
vs
Delaware State: 31.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Morgan State: 37.6%
vs
Delaware State: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DSU Score
69.0
75
MORG Score
84.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 28.6
14.0 / 10.0
Assists
13.7 / 9.5
8.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.4 / 1.4
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 39.4
33.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.8 / 68.9
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 31.6
35.0 / 42.0
Steals
3.9 / 7.1
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 13.0
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DSU
8-23-0
(25.8%)
Margin: -9.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
MORG
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DSU
9-17-0
(34.6%)
Margin: -9.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
MORG
Advantage
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DSU
7-19-0
O: 26.9% / U: 73.1%
Total +/-: -5.3
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
DSU
MORG
DSU
ML
50%
14-14
60%
18-12
58%
14-10
75%
18-6
ATS
50%
14-14
60%
18-12
58%
14-10
72%
18-7
TTL
50%
14-14
57%
17-13
100%
24-0
100%
25-0
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