MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
12-20 | Road
64
IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
20-11 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
0%
HAWKEYES
100%
TERRAPINS
--
HAWKEYES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IOWA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)
MD By 1-7 points
26.8%
MD By 8-14 points
18.6%
IOWA By 1-7 points
23.0%
IOWA By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
77
MARYLAND
Iowa
75
IOWA
Simulated Score
Maryland
68
MARYLAND
Iowa
72
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Terrapins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawkeyes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawkeyes (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Hawkeyes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MD @ IOWA
64 - 75
Feb 11, 2026
IOWA @ MD
70 - 77
Dec 6, 2025
MD @ IOWA
64 - 83
Feb 16, 2025
IOWA @ MD
75 - 101
Feb 14, 2024
IOWA @ MD
66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+76.8% more
Maryland: 4.1
vs
Iowa: 1.0
Rebounding (L5)
+21.5% more
Maryland: 36.3
vs
Iowa: 28.5
Steals (L5)
+123.7% more
Iowa: 7.2
vs
Maryland: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+39.4% more
Iowa: 15.2
vs
Maryland: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
77.0
64
IOWA Score
75.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 29.8
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
15.2 / 10.9
19.0 / 8.0
Blocks
1.0 / 4.1
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 40.0
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
80.0 / 71.6
60.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
28.5 / 36.3
25.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.2 / 3.2
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.7
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
MD
IOWA
MD
ML
59%
22-15
70%
23-10
78%
28-8
67%
22-11
ATS
76%
28-9
64%
21-12
78%
28-8
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
21-16
64%
21-12
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
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