Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Wolfpack PITT @ NCSU

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

13-19  |  Road

88
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

19-12  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
WOLFPACK
0%
PANTHERS --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (NC State)
PanthersPITT (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

5.5%

Wolfpack Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCSU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

PITT By 1-7 points

4.0%

PITT By 8-14 points

0.8%

NCSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

NCSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
PITTSBURGH
82
NC STATE
Simulated Score
70
PITTSBURGH
74
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolfpack (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 PITT @ NCSU 88 - 98
Jan 24, 2026 NCSU @ PITT 81 - 72
Mar 5, 2025 PITT @ NCSU 63 - 71
Mar 9, 2024 NCSU @ PITT 73 - 81
Feb 7, 2024 PITT @ NCSU 67 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.1% more
NC State: 3.7 vs Pittsburgh: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +9.1%
NC State: 74.3% vs Pittsburgh: 65.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
NC State: 31.6% vs Pittsburgh: 26.5%
Turnovers (L5) +16.3% more
Pittsburgh: 10.4 vs NC State: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 66.0 88
NCSU Score 82.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 26.5 57.0 / 44.0
Assists 11.8 / 11.8 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.0 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 43.2 61.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 65.3 85.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 37.3 22.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.5 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 10.4 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
PITT
NCSU
PITT
ML
59% 20-14
58% 19-14
55% 18-15
45% 15-18
ATS
71% 24-10
64% 21-12
55% 18-15
45% 15-18
TTL
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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