ARIZONA STATE
SUN DEVILSASU
17-15 | Road
42
IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
25-6 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
CYCLONES
0%
SUN DEVILS
--
CYCLONES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Iowa State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)
ASU By 1-7 points
24.3%
ASU By 8-14 points
13.7%
ISU By 1-7 points
26.2%
ISU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona State
72
ARIZONA STATE
Iowa State
73
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
Arizona State
68
ARIZONA STATE
Iowa State
75
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cyclones
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cyclones
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cyclones (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cyclones (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
ASU @ ISU
42 - 91
Mar 7, 2026
ASU @ ISU
65 - 86
Jan 25, 2025
ISU @ ASU
76 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+55.8% more
Iowa State: 10.8
vs
Arizona State: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+16.4% more
Iowa State: 14.8
vs
Arizona State: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.2%
Iowa State: 75.2%
vs
Arizona State: 73.0%
Blocks (L5)
+46.7% more
Arizona State: 4.2
vs
Iowa State: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ASU Score
72.0
42
ISU Score
73.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 34.5
40.0 / 5.0
Assists
14.8 / 12.7
18.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.2
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.6 / 47.7
51.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 73.0
60.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
31.7 / 33.4
38.0 / 32.0
Steals
10.8 / 6.9
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 14.9
8.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
Advantage
20-12-1
(62.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
ISU
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
ASU
ISU
ASU
ML
57%
21-16
52%
17-16
76%
26-8
68%
21-10
ATS
62%
23-14
52%
17-16
76%
26-8
68%
21-10
TTL
54%
20-17
64%
21-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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