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TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

14-17  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 8:30 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

13-18  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
TEXANS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

69.1%

Wildcats Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

27.2%

TAR By 8-14 points

23.0%

ACU By 1-7 points

18.6%

ACU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
83
TARLETON STATE
78
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
68
TARLETON STATE
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 TAR @ ACU 78 - 84
Feb 16, 2026 ACU @ TAR 62 - 65
Feb 14, 2026 TAR @ ACU 59 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 ACU @ TAR 84 - 80
Feb 27, 2025 ACU @ TAR 52 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.3% more
Tarleton State: 3.3 vs Abilene Christian: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
Tarleton State: 32.6 vs Abilene Christian: 28.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Tarleton State: 33.0% vs Abilene Christian: 23.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Tarleton State: 41.8% vs Abilene Christian: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 83.0 78
ACU Score 78.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.7 / 33.0 33.0 / 38.0
Assists 10.0 / 10.1 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.9 / 41.8 50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 69.2 73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 28.5 / 32.6 32.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.5 / 6.6 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 12.7 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
TAR
ACU
TAR
ML
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
ATS
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
66% 21-11
TTL
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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