Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Wolf Pack AF @ NEV

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-28  |  Road

45
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 5:30 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

20-11  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
WOLF PACK
0%
FALCONS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Nevada)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

27.4%

Wolf Pack Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

AF By 1-7 points

16.9%

AF By 8-14 points

6.8%

NEV By 1-7 points

26.8%

NEV By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
AIR FORCE
75
NEVADA
Simulated Score
62
AIR FORCE
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 AF @ NEV 45 - 80
Mar 7, 2026 AF @ NEV 59 - 74
Jan 17, 2026 NEV @ AF 81 - 66
Feb 4, 2025 NEV @ AF 74 - 60
Jan 14, 2025 AF @ NEV 62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +70.6% more
Nevada: 3.6 vs Air Force: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +36.1% more
Nevada: 36.5 vs Air Force: 26.8
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
Nevada: 13.4 vs Air Force: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +18.8%
Nevada: 73.9% vs Air Force: 55.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 69.0 45
NEV Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 27.7 25.0 / 9.0
Assists 13.4 / 10.9 17.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.1 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 46.0 46.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 55.1 77.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 26.8 44.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.2 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 12.1 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
AF
NEV
AF
ML
62% 23-14
81% 26-6
73% 27-10
62% 20-12
ATS
73% 27-10
69% 22-10
73% 27-10
62% 20-12
TTL
49% 18-19
69% 22-10
100% 37-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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