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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

35-18-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

32-22-9  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Jacob Fowler
GOALTENDER

Jacob Fowler

#32 | G
@
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jacob Fowler None-None 2.00 0.941 --
Linus Ullmark None-None 3.12 0.870 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.12
0.941 Ldr Save % 0.870
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
0%
📊
SENATORS
100%
CANADIENS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Senators Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

OTT By 1 goal

12.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MONTREAL
3
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
2
MONTREAL
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Canadiens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Senators (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 MTL @ OTT 3 - 2
Jan 17, 2026 MTL @ OTT 6 - 5
Dec 2, 2025 OTT @ MTL 5 - 2
Nov 1, 2025 OTT @ MTL 3 - 4
Apr 11, 2025 MTL @ OTT 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +16.4% more
Montreal: 5.1 vs Ottawa: 4.2
Power Play % (L5) +8.5%
Montreal: 31.0% vs Ottawa: 22.5%
Faceoff % (L5) +4.6%
Montreal: 56.1% vs Ottawa: 51.5%
Hits (L5) +10.1% more
Ottawa: 22.2 vs Montreal: 20.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 4.0 3
OTT Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
MTL
OTT
MTL
ML
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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