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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

13-18  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

20-11  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
RAMS
100%
BULLDOGS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

34.5%

Rams Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

FRES By 1-7 points

27.4%

FRES By 8-14 points

21.6%

CSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

CSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
FRESNO STATE
68
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
65
FRESNO STATE
78
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 FRES @ CSU 63 - 67
Feb 24, 2026 FRES @ CSU 70 - 74
Jan 13, 2026 CSU @ FRES 69 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 CSU @ FRES 69 - 64
Jan 7, 2025 FRES @ CSU 64 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.2% more
Fresno State: 33.7 vs Colorado State: 27.2
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
Fresno State: 3.1 vs Colorado State: 2.6
Assists (L5) +82.2% more
Colorado State: 17.8 vs Fresno State: 9.8
Steals (L5) +48.8% more
Colorado State: 5.7 vs Fresno State: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 72.0 63
CSU Score 68.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 30.7 33.0 / 30.0
Assists 17.8 / 9.8 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 53.6 / 41.9 39.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 72.3 73.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 27.2 / 33.7 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.7 / 3.8 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 10.4 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
CSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
FRES
CSU
FRES
ML
56% 19-15
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
ATS
62% 21-13
75% 24-8
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
TTL
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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