UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
18-13 | Road
73
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
18-13 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
0%
AGGIES
100%
GAUCHOS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSB -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)
UCSB By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCSB By 8-14 points
26.8%
UCD By 1-7 points
6.8%
UCD By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
86
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC Davis
73
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
68
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC Davis
75
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gauchos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gauchos (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
UCSB @ UCD
73 - 79
Feb 5, 2026
UCSB @ UCD
75 - 85
Jan 8, 2026
UCD @ UCSB
93 - 86
Jan 18, 2025
UCD @ UCSB
64 - 60
Dec 7, 2024
UCSB @ UCD
60 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.5% more
UC Santa Barbara: 15.3
vs
UC Davis: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+11.3% more
UC Santa Barbara: 35.1
vs
UC Davis: 31.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
UC Santa Barbara: 83.6%
vs
UC Davis: 72.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
UC Santa Barbara: 36.8%
vs
UC Davis: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
86.0
73
UCD Score
73.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 36.8
30.0 / 19.0
Assists
14.0 / 12.5
13.0 / 5.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.1
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 44.1
48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 83.6
73.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
31.2 / 35.1
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.5 / 3.0
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 15.3
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
UCSB
UCD
UCSB
ML
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
72%
23-9
ATS
61%
20-13
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
72%
23-9
TTL
61%
20-13
47%
15-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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