SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
8-23 | Road
84
BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
20-11 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
BRONCOS
0%
SPARTANS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boise State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)
SJSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
SJSU By 8-14 points
12.2%
BOIS By 1-7 points
26.8%
BOIS By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San José State
75
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Boise State
77
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
San José State
62
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Boise State
72
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
SJSU @ BOIS
84 - 74
Feb 21, 2026
SJSU @ BOIS
69 - 84
Jan 27, 2026
BOIS @ SJSU
89 - 58
Feb 7, 2025
SJSU @ BOIS
52 - 79
Dec 28, 2024
BOIS @ SJSU
73 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+95.4% more
Boise State: 12.0
vs
San José State: 6.1
Rebounding (L5)
+32.3% more
Boise State: 37.0
vs
San José State: 27.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.3%
Boise State: 80.9%
vs
San José State: 70.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Boise State: 35.7%
vs
San José State: 29.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score
75.0
84
BOIS Score
77.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 29.5
22.0 / 36.0
Assists
9.2 / 9.0
7.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.7 / 4.0
0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 47.4
38.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.9 / 70.6
83.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 27.9
41.0 / 32.0
Steals
3.3 / 5.7
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 6.1
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
BOIS
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
SJSU
BOIS
SJSU
ML
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
ATS
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
TTL
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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