Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vaqueros @ Cowboys RGV @ MCN

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

19-13  |  Road

80
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 9:30 PM ET
Townsley Law Arena
View Odds Details →

MCNEESE

COWBOYSMCN

26-5  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
VAQUEROS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (McNeese)
VaquerosRGV (-3.5) 0 CowboysMCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vaqueros Cover

9.7%

Cowboys Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MCN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)

RGV By 1-7 points

6.8%

RGV By 8-14 points

1.7%

MCN By 1-7 points

18.6%

MCN By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
82
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
65
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
78
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 RGV @ MCN 80 - 84
Feb 23, 2026 RGV @ MCN 68 - 75
Jan 17, 2026 MCN @ RGV 76 - 79
Feb 24, 2025 RGV @ MCN 65 - 100
Jan 25, 2025 MCN @ RGV 93 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +102.7% more
McNeese: 10.4 vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 5.1
Assists (L5) +29.5% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 16.9 vs McNeese: 11.9
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 11.4 vs McNeese: 8.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +17.7%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 41.3% vs McNeese: 23.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RGV Score 69.0 80
MCN Score 82.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.6 / 41.3 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.9 / 16.9 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.7 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 51.5 38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 83.2 52.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 31.2 48.0 / 47.0
Steals 10.4 / 5.1 16.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 11.4 10.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
MCN Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
MCN
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
RGV
MCN
RGV
ML
67% 22-11
53% 16-14
88% 28-4
54% 15-13
ATS
76% 25-8
53% 16-14
88% 28-4
54% 15-13
TTL
42% 14-19
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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