Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Musketeers @ Golden Eagles XAV @ MARQ

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

14-17  |  Road

89
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 6:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

12-19  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
MUSKETEERS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Marquette)
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

9.7%

Golden Eagles Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

XAV By 1-7 points

6.8%

XAV By 8-14 points

1.7%

MARQ By 1-7 points

18.6%

MARQ By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
72
XAVIER
85
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
72
XAVIER
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 XAV @ MARQ 89 - 87
Feb 14, 2026 MARQ @ XAV 88 - 96
Jan 7, 2026 XAV @ MARQ 65 - 66
Mar 13, 2025 MARQ @ XAV 89 - 87
Jan 18, 2025 XAV @ MARQ 59 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +75.9% more
Marquette: 10.7 vs Xavier: 6.1
Turnovers (L5) +42.2% more
Marquette: 12.5 vs Xavier: 8.8
Blocks (L5) +38.1% more
Xavier: 3.2 vs Marquette: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5) +19.2%
Xavier: 84.6% vs Marquette: 65.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 72.0 89
MARQ Score 85.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 38.7 28.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.6 / 17.0 21.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.2 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 44.6 42.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 65.4 / 84.6 74.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 31.0 39.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.7 / 6.1 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 8.8 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
XAV
MARQ
XAV
ML
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
ATS
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 16-16
39% 13-20
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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