Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Friars @ Bulldogs PROV @ BUT

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

14-17  |  Road

91
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 4:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

16-15  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
FRIARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Butler)
FriarsPROV (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Friars Cover

1.8%

Bulldogs Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

PROV By 1-7 points

1.4%

PROV By 8-14 points

0.2%

BUT By 1-7 points

6.8%

BUT By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
PROVIDENCE
83
BUTLER
Simulated Score
69
PROVIDENCE
73
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u163.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 PROV @ BUT 91 - 81
Feb 4, 2026 BUT @ PROV 87 - 97
Dec 13, 2025 PROV @ BUT 110 - 113
Mar 12, 2025 BUT @ PROV 75 - 69
Feb 8, 2025 PROV @ BUT 81 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +40.1% more
Butler: 14.7 vs Providence: 10.5
Blocks (L5) +27.2% more
Butler: 3.5 vs Providence: 2.8
Steals (L5) +18.7% more
Butler: 5.9 vs Providence: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Butler: 80.8% vs Providence: 73.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PROV Score 62.0 91
BUT Score 83.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 38.2 29.0 / 52.0
Assists 14.7 / 10.5 16.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 45.0 46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 73.1 76.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 37.3 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.9 / 5.0 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 16.1 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
PROV
BUT
PROV
ML
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
ATS
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
TTL
50% 16-16
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day ago
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
saturdaydownsouth 2 days, 6 hours ago
NYT Mini Crossword Solutions for October 6: Tricky Clues Solved
cnet 2 days, 18 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 6 hours ago
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
headtopics 4 days, 18 hours ago