INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-49 | Road
109
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
15-50 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
KINGS
100%
PACERS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
IND By 1-7 points
27.2%
IND By 8-14 points
20.1%
SAC By 1-7 points
21.6%
SAC By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
117
INDIANA
Sacramento
114
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
IND @ SAC
109 - 114
Dec 8, 2025
SAC @ IND
105 - 116
Mar 31, 2025
SAC @ IND
109 - 111
Dec 22, 2024
IND @ SAC
122 - 95
Feb 2, 2024
SAC @ IND
133 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+27.0% more
Indiana: 12.5
vs
Sacramento: 9.1
Steals (L5)
+10.1% more
Indiana: 7.6
vs
Sacramento: 6.8
Rebounding (L5)
+24.3% more
Sacramento: 47.4
vs
Indiana: 38.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.2%
Sacramento: 81.4%
vs
Indiana: 71.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
117.0
109
SAC Score
114.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 30.9
35.0 / 30.0
Assists
29.4 / 28.8
22.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.8
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 45.2
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 71.2
83.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 38.1
52.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.6
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 12.5
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SAC
Advantage
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
IND
SAC
IND
ML
55%
55-45
48%
47-50
61%
50-32
54%
45-38
ATS
54%
52-45-3
59%
57-40
61%
50-32
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
57-42-1
54%
52-45
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…
Joel Embiid: The X-Factor in Philadelphia's Star-Studded Lineup
Stephen A. Smith Sounds Alarm: James Dolan Could Derail Knicks' …
LeBron James Joins Star-Studded 76ers: Inside the First Week of …