TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
36-27 | Road
99
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
39-24 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
RAPTORS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TOR By 1-7 points
8.0%
TOR By 8-14 points
2.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
20.1%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
109
TORONTO
Houston
121
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
113
TORONTO
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.0
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u220.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ HOU
99 - 113
Feb 9, 2025
TOR @ HOU
87 - 94
Dec 22, 2024
HOU @ TOR
114 - 110
Feb 9, 2024
HOU @ TOR
104 - 107
Feb 2, 2024
TOR @ HOU
106 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+41.8% more
Houston: 16.5
vs
Toronto: 11.6
Blocks (L5)
+34.0% more
Houston: 5.6
vs
Toronto: 4.2
Rebounding (L5)
+12.8% more
Houston: 44.1
vs
Toronto: 39.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Houston: 80.2%
vs
Toronto: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
109.0
99
HOU Score
121.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 34.6
42.0 / 25.0
Assists
24.5 / 29.5
21.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.2
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 49.4
50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
80.2 / 76.1
78.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 39.1
52.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.7
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 11.6
18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
61%
69-44
55%
57-47
59%
51-35
55%
48-39
ATS
62%
70-43
61%
62-40-2
59%
51-35
55%
48-39
TTL
51%
58-55
60%
62-42
100%
86-0
100%
87-0
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