BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
43-21 | Road
116
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
47-17 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
SPURS
0%
CELTICS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
BOS By 1-7 points
18.6%
BOS By 8-14 points
8.0%
SA By 1-7 points
27.2%
SA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
115
BOSTON
San Antonio
120
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Boston
105
BOSTON
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
BOS @ SA
116 - 125
Jan 10, 2026
SA @ BOS
100 - 95
Mar 29, 2025
BOS @ SA
121 - 111
Feb 12, 2025
SA @ BOS
103 - 116
Jan 17, 2024
SA @ BOS
98 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.1% more
San Antonio: 7.4
vs
Boston: 4.6
Steals (L5)
+55.9% more
San Antonio: 6.2
vs
Boston: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
San Antonio: 32.1
vs
Boston: 26.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
San Antonio: 52.0%
vs
Boston: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
115.0
116
SA Score
120.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.6 / 36.3
43.0 / 37.0
Assists
32.1 / 26.1
27.0 / 27.0
Blocks
7.4 / 4.6
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 44.5
52.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 82.3
68.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 51.4
44.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.2 / 4.0
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.3
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
BOS
SA
BOS
ML
60%
111-73
57%
61-46
58%
61-44
53%
47-41
ATS
58%
107-76-1
59%
61-43-3
58%
61-44
53%
47-41
TTL
74%
134-47-3
56%
60-47
100%
105-0
100%
88-0
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