DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
21-43 | Road
112
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
33-31 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
HAWKS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
255.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
DAL By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.7%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
126
DALLAS
Atlanta
129
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o240.5
Loss
Proj Total: 255.0
D
Sim
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
ATL @ DAL
135 - 120
Mar 10, 2026
DAL @ ATL
112 - 124
Apr 2, 2025
ATL @ DAL
118 - 120
Nov 25, 2024
DAL @ ATL
129 - 119
Apr 4, 2024
ATL @ DAL
95 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+114.9% more
Atlanta: 10.4
vs
Dallas: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+39.2% more
Atlanta: 32.0
vs
Dallas: 23.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.9%
Atlanta: 38.8%
vs
Dallas: 28.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.4%
Atlanta: 51.4%
vs
Dallas: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
126.0
112
ATL Score
129.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 28.9
39.0 / 41.0
Assists
32.0 / 23.0
29.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.7
8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
51.4 / 42.0
52.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 79.8
67.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
45.7 / 45.3
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
10.4 / 4.8
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 15.3
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DAL
ATL
DAL
ML
50%
52-52
62%
63-39
55%
48-40
54%
44-37
ATS
53%
55-48-1
67%
68-34
55%
48-40
54%
44-37
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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