WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
16-47 | Road
129
MIAMI
HEATMIA
36-29 | Home
150
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
HEAT
0%
WIZARDS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
WSH By 1-7 points
24.3%
WSH By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
119
WASHINGTON
Miami
120
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
112
WASHINGTON
Miami
103
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wizards
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+16)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Wizards (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.5
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ WSH
140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026
WSH @ MIA
136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026
WSH @ MIA
129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026
MIA @ WSH
132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025
WSH @ MIA
119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+54.2% more
Miami: 9.1
vs
Washington: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+47.5% more
Miami: 5.5
vs
Washington: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+24.1% more
Miami: 29.6
vs
Washington: 23.8
Rebounding (L5)
+17.8% more
Miami: 47.1
vs
Washington: 40.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
119.0
129
MIA Score
120.0
150
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 36.3
30.0 / 42.0
Assists
29.6 / 23.8
31.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 46.4
50.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
84.9 / 75.2
80.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 40.0
48.0 / 35.0
Steals
9.1 / 5.9
16.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 16.2
17.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
46-50
70%
112-49
59%
48-34
47%
39-44
ATS
51%
49-47
69%
111-49-1
59%
48-34
47%
39-44
TTL
59%
57-39
74%
119-41-1
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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