Home / NHL Projections NHL / Golden Knights @ Stars VGK @ DAL

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

29-21-14  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

39-14-10  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Adin Hill None-None 2.06 0.875 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.00 0.963 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.06 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.875 Save % Ldr 0.963
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

VGK By 1 goal

12.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
VEGAS
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 VGK @ DAL 3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026 VGK @ DAL 1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026 DAL @ VGK 5 - 4
Jan 28, 2025 DAL @ VGK 4 - 3
Jan 24, 2025 VGK @ DAL 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +27.3% more
Dallas: 5.2 vs Vegas: 4.1
Blocked Shots (L5) +20.4% more
Dallas: 17.4 vs Vegas: 14.5
Hits (L5) +11.4% more
Dallas: 21.9 vs Vegas: 19.6
Power Play % (L5) +9.4%
Dallas: 32.0% vs Vegas: 22.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 2.0 1
DAL Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
97%MONEY3%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
VGK
DAL
VGK
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 14 hours ago
Sharks Stunned: Celebrini Sidelined by Lower-Body Injury Moments…
yahoo 2 days, 20 hours ago
Sharks' Celebrini Sidelined with Lower-Body Injury in Loss to St…
yahoo 2 days, 20 hours ago
Golden Knights Edge Canucks 3-2 as Gatcomb Strikes Late
yahoo 3 days, 20 hours ago
Maple Leafs' Accountability Moment: Hiller Benches Nylander, Ech…
yardbarker 4 days, 3 hours ago