MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
17-16 | Road
70
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
SHARKSLIU
23-10 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
SHARKS
0%
LAKERS
--
SHARKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Long Island University)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIU)
MERC By 1-7 points
13.7%
MERC By 8-14 points
4.8%
LIU By 1-7 points
25.3%
LIU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
79
MERCYHURST
Long Island University
87
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
68
MERCYHURST
Long Island University
75
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sharks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sharks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sharks (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Sharks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
MERC @ LIU
70 - 79
Feb 21, 2026
LIU @ MERC
83 - 91
Jan 8, 2026
MERC @ LIU
58 - 60
Jan 26, 2025
LIU @ MERC
80 - 85
Jan 20, 2025
MERC @ LIU
63 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.8% more
Long Island University: 6.4
vs
Mercyhurst: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Long Island University: 10.7
vs
Mercyhurst: 8.7
Steals (L5)
+12.4% more
Long Island University: 7.0
vs
Mercyhurst: 6.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Long Island University: 49.2%
vs
Mercyhurst: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
79.0
70
LIU Score
87.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 31.2
56.0 / 55.0
Assists
11.6 / 12.7
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.2
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 42.8
56.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 82.9
55.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 36.7
34.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.2
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 8.7
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
LIU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
LIU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
LIU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIU
MERC
LIU
MERC
ML
60%
21-14
59%
20-14
69%
24-11
79%
26-7
ATS
63%
22-13
62%
21-13
69%
24-11
79%
26-7
TTL
60%
21-14
53%
18-16
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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